Pauline Hanson tells her Secret Harbour One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen to ‘go hard’

One Nation Secret Harbour candidate Luke Herdegen has declared he can win today’s by-election on primaries — as the party seeks to make political history in WA.

Speaking at a polling booth in Lakelands, Mr Herdegen told The West Australian that the support for One Nation was overwhelming.

He said national issues such as cost-of-living hikes and concerns about current immigration numbers had been key.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we win it on primaries,” Mr Herdegen said.

“It could be tight too. But I absolutely think we can win it.”

It comes as Pauline Hanson told Mr Herdegen to “go hard” on the final day of the gruelling campaign.

In a text message to Mr Herdegen on Friday, Senator Hanson said that “whatever the outcome” of today’s by-election, she was proud of the 39-year-old.

“From day one you’ve committed every waking hour to this Secret Harbour campaign and I can’t be prouder,” Senator Hanson said in the text message to Mr Herdegen.

“What you’ve done is put Labor and the Liberals on notice.

“Whatever the outcome, I want you to know that everyone on the east coast is cheering for you.”

As voting begins at nine polling places across the Secret Harbour electorate, One Nation remains confident of a boilover in the safe Labor seat.

Ms Hanson also phoned Mr Herdegen on Saturday morning.

“One Nation is targeting Labor-held seats hard and fast,” Senator Hanson said.

Senator Hanson will not be at tonight’s One Nation function in Karnup.

But she had this final message for the 39-year-old on the last day of campaigning.

“I only wish I was there to celebrate,” Senator Hanson said.

“Go hard on the final day and I’ll give you a call on the night.”

Secret Harbour is a safe Labor seat, with a margin of nearly 12 per cent.

Normally, Labor would be a shoo-in to retain the seat.

But the retirement of former Secret Harbour member Paul Papalia — also a Labor minister — and a resurgent One Nation have given Pauline Hanson her best chance yet of picking up her first seat in the Legislative Assembly of the WA Parliament.

National issues, including surging cost-of-living pressures and the housing crisis — which One Nation partly blames on immigration numbers — as well as an unpopular Anthony Albanese, have made WA Labor’s chances of retaining the seat more difficult.

A number of campaign missteps, including preventing Labor candidate Georgia Tree from speaking at Roger Cook and Rita Saffioti’s announcement of a new train station at Karnup, have also played into One Nation’s hands.

Neither Ms Tree, Mr Herdegen nor the Liberal candidate lives in the Secret Harbour electorate.

While Mr Herdegen and Liberal candidate Mr Robertson live in Rockingham, Ms Tree lives in Perth, despite having spent much of her childhood and teenage years in Warnbro.

Labor sources have privately conceded that Ms Tree living in Perth had hurt the ALP’s election campaign.

One Nation candidate Mr Herdegen, a 39-year-old gym owner, last weekend proclaimed his party could well win the seat on primary votes.

That is despite Mr Papalia and Labor scoring 46.6 per cent of first preferences at the March 2025 State election.

At that poll, One Nation scored just 8.4 per cent of the primary vote.

But the political landscape has changed dramatically in Australia since the 2025 State and federal elections, with One Nation winning four lower house seats in the South Australian election and the once-Liberal seat of Farrer.

Federally, One Nation’s primary vote is almost neck-and-neck with Labor’s, at just under 30 per cent.

WA Labor has thrown everything at the by-election, spending an unprecedented $400,000 trying to retain the seat.

Labor sources last night were praying for an election miracle, bracing for a loss but hoping the ALP could still scrape in and retain the seat.

There are 36,407 eligible voters in the Secret Harbour electorate, just south of Rockingham.

Already, 45 per cent of voters have cast their ballot through pre-poll and postal voting.

Today’s votes will be counted first by the WAEC, with early votes and postal votes counted next.

“With 16 candidates on the ballot paper, we expect the ballot count to take longer than usual to complete,” WAEC Commissioner Dennis O’Reilly said.

“However, we still expect to provide an indicative result tonight (Saturday).

“A final result cannot be declared until after September 3, once all postal votes have been received, checked and counted.”

One Nation WA leader Rod Caddies, one of two One Nation MPs in the Legislative Council of the WA Parliament, said the party was confident of an election victory.

“We are confident, but we don’t want to be arrogant about it,” he said.

“We are not taking it for granted. We will work all day long to try and convince people we are the best choice.”

Mr Caddies said Federal issues had been raised constantly by voters during the campaign.

“Mainly it has been cost of living and housing — a concern about the ability of people to buy a house,” he said.

“A rise in immigration has been an issue, with people saying we are letting a lot of people into Australia, which is putting pressure on housing.

“Homelessness in areas like Rockingham has been raised numerous times — people saying that should not be happening in Australia.”

During the campaign, Senator Hanson and federal Liberal leader Angus Taylor visited Secret Harbour.

But Mr Albanese refused to step foot in the electorate, despite being in Perth for three days this week and attending two fundraisers where the price of admission ranged from $2500 to $10,000 a person.

Mr Caddies said Mr Albanese’s unpopularity had proved an issue in the Secret Harbour by-election.

“Albanese has come up as being a liar because of broken promises on negative gearing and capital gains tax changes,” Mr Caddies said.

“Voters just say, ‘You can’t trust Labor.’

“Even on State issues, people were telling us Roger Cook and his party had broken their promise on delivering the Karnup Train Station — which they eventually did promise during the campaign.”