LATIKA M BOURKE: Trump’s Iran truce raises fears of nuclear threat, global instability and weakened US trust

Iran and the United States have agreed on a two-week ceasefire, sparking an enormous sigh of relief worldwide.

But no one should exhale too long.

The US President Donald Trump took his bombastic negotiating style to a new and worrying extreme in the process.

“A whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” he said in a Truth Social, hours before his deadline to blow up power plants and bridges was due.

But the same post, which legal experts interpreted as an intention of genocide and others wondered if it could even be the invocation of a nuclear threat, also hinted at a breakthrough.

“Maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!”

With just 90 minutes until the supposed destruction of the entire population of Iran, already oppressed by their tyrannical rulers, was to begin, the President announced his ceasefire, “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz”.

He said the “double-sided ceasefire” would last two weeks, something the Iranians also confirmed.

Trump said that the US had already met and exceeded all military objectives and was “very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran.”

He said that the Iranians had proposed a ten-point plan that was a “workable basis.”

“It is an honour to have this long-term problem close to resolution,” he said.

But it is worth noting that the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that passage through the Strait would be allowed for the next two weeks under “Iranian military management.”

Additionally, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council immediately warned that the ceasefire was not a long-term termination of the war.

“Our hands remain upon the trigger, and should the slightest error be committed by the enemy, it shall be met with full force,” the Council said in a statement.

The Wall Street Journal, citing Iranian and Arab officials, published nine of Iran’s demands. This contained a permanent end to the bombing, including in Lebanon, all sanctions lifted on Iran and Iran’s allies, full control of the Strait of Hormuz including the ability to charge tolls that would fund Iran’s reconstruction as well as be shared with Oman.

It is not clear what either side will demand on Iran’s nuclear stockpile, the cited justification for starting the war.

Trump’s declaration of US victory and belief that he has achieved his military objectives paves the way for him to wash his hands of what comes next.

And that could be an even more emboldened and aggressive Iran.

An Iran that has had more than a month of demonstrating the economic destruction it can cause to global aviation and the economic models of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, by lobbing a single drone at an airport at any one time.

Such an incident could easily be blamed on a rogue IRGC commander and cause havoc to flights for days and weeks, as anyone attempting international travel has experienced.

Then there is the more drastic problem of oil supplies, through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for around 20 per cent of the world’s trade.

As a result of the war, Iran wants to formalise the economic leverage it has been exerting on the rest of the world by insisting on being able to charge tolls for the passage of ships carrying oil that literally fuels our economies.

Trump is furious at allies for not helping him out in Iran. He may have less incentive to fight this demand, and knowing his penchant for retribution and payback, seek to make it a problem for his perceived “unhelpful allies.”

He has already threatened this approach in the past. “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the USA. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!” he said in an angry post last week.

Trump’s war against Iran has exposed several truths. Allies have few resources and less willingness to deploy assets to the Middle East compared to operations past, such as in 2020 when Australia last sent a frigate to the Straits to patrol against Iranian attacks on oil tankers.

The UK could not even defend its own base in Cyprus from a drone attack. It was slow to deploy a warship, the destroyer HMS Dragon and after less than a month has had to recall it to port for repairs to its water system.

This is not Donald Trump’s fault. Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese and Keir Starmer should swap notes on how they can brave up and go to their voters and tell them how and why they need to spend more on defending themselves.

The second is the obvious fissure between Trump and his allies, including Australia. The President is a vindictive man who does not forget slights.

The third is the rubicon the United States was willing to cross in order to negotiate its ceasefire. Trump dropped f-bombs as he threatened genocide and nationwide attacks on civilian infrastructure.

His supporters will defend it all as a necessary tactic to achieve Wednesday’s breakthrough. But there is nothing justifiable about his threats, which have provoked even some within his base to question his mental fitness for office.

The United States has debased itself, and while this might have once been assigned as a characteristic trait of the President’s alone, it is clear that he operates without restraint, with no one willing or able to counsel or caution him.

Methods do not always justify the madness. Australians and allies must reckon with the fact that our ally has gone through the looking glass and was willing to threaten the end of a civilisation. For countries vainly trying to stick by systems of rules and world governance, Trump has once again made that task so much harder.

It is not yet clear if his war has made the world safer or if he has given Iran new leverage.

The ceasefire is a welcome breakthrough for citizens facing the prospect of an unnecessary global recession. While Trump may think his work is done, for the rest of us, it might only be just getting started.