Tropical cyclone Maila: BOM update category as system ‘sucks’ weather off Aussie coast

The landfall guessing game for forecasters continues as tropical cyclone Maila starts to “suck” the weather away from the northern coast of Australia.

Maila’s category rating has ebbed and flowed in recent days as the monster front gathered momentum, then slowed its approach and almost stalled, causing the Bureau of Meteorology to downgrade the cyclone to category 3 on Friday.

Radar mapping shows the huge system sitting in the Solomon Sea, with predictions that it will pass through southern Papua New Guinea over the weekend, before heading toward the Australian coast early next week.

Forecasters say Maila is currently about 1,300km from Australia and is pushing out winds gusts of up to 260km/h.

The most likely point for a land crossing in Australia is predicted to be somewhere between Cooktown and Cairns on Monday or Tuesday next week, but the range extends all the way from Townsville to Cape York.

There is also a chance the system could track further, re-emerging into the Gulf of Carpentaria and even impacting the Northern Territory.

“Ongoing severe weather will target the south and the east as we head into the weekend,” explained Sky News meteorologist Marina Neuman.

Warm water and different weather patterns in and around the Pacific island region have caused headaches for forecasters as the system develops daily.

“It should weaken as it interacts with the land around Papua New Guinea, and it crosses over some islands,” Bureau of Meteorology Senior Forecaster Shane Kennedy told the ABC.

“There’s still lots of days to come, so we just need to keep an eye on that and wait for its arrival.

“It is definitely worth keeping a close eye on,” he added.

The BOM is still warning that tropical cyclone Maila will remain at tropical cyclone intensity through to next week, though the risk may drop from high to moderate after the system crosses the Far North Queensland coast.

Communities recovering from the onslaught of tropical cyclone Narelle in March may still be affected, with a strong chance the cyclone will re-intensify after making landfall.

“As it does so over the next few days, we’re not expecting much rainfall or wind impacts through much of the Queensland coast ... it really isn’t until Monday, into Tuesday we’ll start seeing impacts to much of the northern Queensland coast,” the BOM’s Dylan Narramore told News.com.au.

“Looking at rainfall from now until Monday morning, you’ll notice that almost no rainfall is expected for much of northern Queensland and that’s thanks to this cyclone sucking all that weather away from the coast due to those southerly winds wrapping around.

“If you live in far northern Queensland or know someone that does, make sure you stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings,” Mr Narramore said.