Growers facing dry, dusty start to the 2024 growing season: GIWA crop report

With the recent hot, dry summer and no rain on the horizon, most growers have begun with dry sowing for this year, according to the Grain Industry Association of WA’s latest crop report. GIWA crop report author Michael Lamond noted this was not unusual for WA, and not necessarily a prediction of a poor year. However, he said the extremely dry soil profile had been a concern and was putting a “dampener” on the start of the 2024 growing season. “Whilst long-term weather forecasts are not particularly reliable this time of the year, there is nothing positive on the horizon and this is playing on growers’ minds, with most taking a cautious approach to the season ahead,” Mr Lamond said. “The dry, hot summer is lingering, and the reprieve in March with storms across areas of the eastern grain belt raised hopes for a change in weather patterns. “However, with current climate outlooks forecasting more of the same for the time being, these hopes have evaporated.” Geraldton port zone Mr Lamond, an agronomist based at York, said last year was a “very poor year” for the Geraldton port zone, and the dry summer resulted in growers pulling back on planned areas of crop. “The appetite for risk is just not there,” he said. Canola area is likely to be down from 2023, but the lupin area might rise slightly from the record low plantings in 2023 because of the lower production cost and with stockpiles now depleted. Some growers in the region have been able to sow canola into moisture thanks to isolated storms hitting the western strips from Mingenew down to Coorow, with falls of up to 40mm. But the rest of the zone is “as dry as most have ever seen it”. Mr Lamond said the region had experienced “wild swings” in the past five years, with the worst years on record in 2019 and 2023, and the best seasons in 2021 and 2022. “Growers are understandably nervous as to what this season may hold,” he said. At Binnu, about 105km north-east of Geraldton, grower Josh Carson has only put in 30 per cent of his family’s canola plantings so far. He said they were waiting on a forecast of a rain front coming before committing to more canola in this year’s program. The Carsons’ total cropping area planned for 2024 is 6600ha with a mix of 2000ha of canola earmarked, depending on how much rainfall is received in coming weeks. Mr Carson said they would start dry sowing wheat in early May and would be using a few varieties including Vixen, as it was a quick growing wheat that would suit well if there was an early finish. “This year we are planning to plant 3800ha of wheat and around 800ha of lupins,” he said. He said it was too early to tell which direction the 2024 season would go but their approach was always to maximise production in a good year and minimise losses in a bad year. “Rainfall can be very variable here. For example, 2021 and 2022 were really, really good years,” Mr Carson said. Kwinana port zone In the north midlands, dry seeding has begun. “Interestingly, barley is going in dry before canola for some, which is a turnaround from previous years and a pointer to the perceived risk of being exposed to too much canola area as the season start becomes later,” Mr Lamond said. In the south, there has been little to no rain since September, and soil profiles are completely dry. Mr Lamond said crop area and enterprise mix remained mostly unchanged from 2023, but canola area would drop if the dry continued. Most of the summer storms in March went to the Kwinana north-east region, with many areas in the zone having at least 50mm of moisture stored in the top 30cm-40cm. Mr Lamond said because of this, growers in the north-east were dry sowing the odd canola and lupin paddock, and most were moving on to cereals sooner than usual. Albany Growers in the west are dry sowing or will start soon, with seeding programs going ahead as planned even though there is no subsoil moisture or rain in sight. Mr Lamond said the west region’s wheat barley split in area from 2023 would be similar this year unless the break to the season pushed back to June. For Albany’s south, growers have started dry seeding earlier than usual, and the planned area of winter wheat will now swing over to spring types or barley. Mr Lamond said no one had changed seeding plans yet in Albany’s east, but there was a pulling back on canola area, and this would keep going as the break to the season became later. Esperance Growers have started dry sowing in the area, and while the dry forecast has made them push back their plans, most have not changed their programs just yet. The region received some rain in parts of Grass Patch and Cascades, as well as western parts of Salmon Gums in March. “Small areas of canola have been sown into moisture where there were falls of greater than 50mm,” Mr Lamond said. “The remainder of the areas are going in dry.” Water shortage is posing a major problem in the region, especially for Mallee, with dry dams and some growers having to cart water from town. Growers in the region have not cut canola areas yet, but there are plans to hold several planned canola paddocks back from being dry sown for the time being. An upside is the dry summer has also meant little or no summer weed control has been needed. “This has been good in some respects, as it has allowed growers to get a few jobs done that have been put off over the last couple of years,” Mr Lamond said.