Veteran market analyst bets on BHP bumping CBA as ASX top valued stock in new commodity super cycle

Veteran market analyst Charlie Aitken has issued a bullish prediction the Big Australian will bump Commonwealth Bank as the nation’s largest company, driven by its heavy copper exposure.

The director of ASX-listed Regal Partners predicted the $276 billion miner would streak past the bank’s $306b market capitalisation, with a “V-shaped recovery in clear view” even as markets moved with every Truth Social post by US President Donald Trump.

“It is time to play the long game and position portfolios for the long-term ramifications,” Mr Aitken said in a note to investors on Tuesday.

He agreed with Blackrock’s head of global thematic investment, Evy Hambro, who told Bloomberg that mining stocks were mis-priced, despite the Iran conflict highlighting the critical importance of commodities to the global economy.

“This will prove your last chance to set portfolios for the ‘commodity super cycle’,” Mr Aitken said.

With the copper price on a bullish run up to about $US6/lb over the past month, and the metal “at the intersection of everything and critically undersupplied”, he said current consensus forecasts of $US4.80lb for the next five years were clearly too low.

“There is no doubt in my mind that copper prices could double or triple over the next decade and owning copper producers will deliver multiples of the spot price growth,” Mr Aitken predicted.

BHP being the world’s largest copper producer, spot iron ore prices continuing to defy the bears at about $US108 per tonne and the miner’s 50 per cent minimum dividend payout ratio to shareholders were among reasons to pile in.

“This half they will receive 60 per cent. To me that makes BHP the ultimate inflation hedge,” Mr Aitken said.

“BHP will regain its natural place as the largest market capitalisation stock and largest index weight on the ASX over the months and years ahead.”

It comes as Reuters reports Chinese state iron ore buyer China Mineral Resources Group has lifted bans on buying the key steelmaking ingredient from BHP after more than six months.